A Simple Pair Trade

November 25, 2025 • 1 minute, 16 second read

Since early 2023, regional banks have been sitting on massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings:

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Bank losses are off their 2023 lows, but are still over $300 billion. (Source: FDIC)

When the Fed began hiking rates to combat inflation, bond holdings tanked. Banks have been sweating it out, anticipating a rate cut cycle.

If the Fed cuts rates in December — odds now 80% — bond prices will continue to rise. Banks will be in better shape as unrealized losses decline. Hopefully, before a crisis breaks out.

But banks are not out of the woods, yet. And increased competition from digital assets (Dollar 2.0) will further squeeze the traditional banking business model.

Lower interest rates will drive hard assets higher. In our view, gold’s recent pause in the low $4,000 range is just that – a necessary breather after the run-up this year from $2,800 to $4,400 at the peak.

Don’t fret the safety of the banking system, buy gold… and digital assets.

~ Addison

P.S. While this is a holiday-shortened week, we’ve arranged for a unique video presentation of Tim Sykes’ novel trading strategy on Thanksgiving Thursday.

Tim is one of the top traders in the game today – and he’s sharing details on a strategy he uses to find stocks on Fridays that will likely pop on the Monday open after a restful weekend.

Tim’s innovative strategy will be worth your consideration:

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Ripple Effect

A Simple Pair Trade

Addison Wiggin

November 25, 2025 • 1 minute, 16 second read

Banks gold

Since early 2023, regional banks have been sitting on massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings:

Turn Your Images On

Bank losses are off their 2023 lows, but are still over $300 billion. (Source: FDIC)

When the Fed began hiking rates to combat inflation, bond holdings tanked. Banks have been sweating it out, anticipating a rate cut cycle.

If the Fed cuts rates in December — odds now 80% — bond prices will continue to rise. Banks will be in better shape as unrealized losses decline. Hopefully, before a crisis breaks out.

But banks are not out of the woods, yet. And increased competition from digital assets (Dollar 2.0) will further squeeze the traditional banking business model.

Don’t fret the safety of the banking system, buy gold… and digital assets.

~ Addison

P.S. While this is a holiday-shortened week, we’ve arranged for a unique video presentation of Tim Sykes’ novel trading strategy on Thanksgiving Thursday.

Tim is one of the top traders in the game today – and he’s sharing details on a strategy he uses to find stocks on Fridays that will likely pop on the Monday open after a restful weekend.

Tim’s innovative strategy will be worth your consideration:

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Frank Holmes: What Gold Reveals About America’s Affordability Crisis

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

A generation ago, a single income could support a family, buy a house and pay for a vehicle or two in the driveway.

Today, even two high earners are struggling to purchase a new home.

According to a recent report from Bankrate, a household earning $80,000 a year is now priced out of 75% of all new homes on the market. A family now needs to earn at least $113,000, and in some major metros, it’s closer to $200,000.

Meanwhile, the homeownership rate has slipped to a six-year low, with further declines expected next year. Families are being squeezed from every angle.

The point I want to make here is that the so-called affordability crisis isn’t just about the cost of homes or other assets. It’s about the cost of money.

Frank Holmes: What Gold Reveals About America’s Affordability Crisis

The Long-Term Cost of Denial

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In just the first two months of Fiscal Year 2026, the deficit already totals $458 billion — the second-largest start on record.

More troubling still, the net interest expense hit $179 billion, outrunning Medicare, defense, and healthcare. At this pace, interest will again be the fastest-growing line item in the federal budget.

Cisco Hits An All-Time High

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

At the absolute peak of the dot-com boom — routers stacked to the ceiling and PowerPoint masquerading as profits — Cisco’s market capitalization topped out at roughly 4.4% of U.S. GDP.

Nvidia today? Roughly 16% of U.S. GDP.

That’s not a rounding error.

Measured against the size of the economy, Nvidia is in a category Cisco never visited. Which means that any serious disappointment in the AI build-out would scale 2000–01 – geometrically.

From Permission to Possession

December 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

America has consistently reinvented itself in times of crisis. The founders survived monarchy. Lincoln survived disunion. We’ve survived bank panics, oil shocks, stagflation, and disco. We’ll survive deplatforming, too.

The Second American Revolution won’t be fought with muskets or manifestos. It won’t be fought with petty violence and street demonstrations. It will be written into code. And available to those who wish to take advantage of it.

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Frank Holmes: What Gold Reveals About America’s Affordability Crisis

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

A generation ago, a single income could support a family, buy a house and pay for a vehicle or two in the driveway.

Today, even two high earners are struggling to purchase a new home.

Meanwhile, the homeownership rate has slipped to a six-year low, with further declines expected next year. Families are being squeezed from every angle.

The point I want to make here is that the so-called affordability crisis isn’t just about the cost of homes or other assets. It’s about the cost of money.

The Long-Term Cost of Denial

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In just the first two months of Fiscal Year 2026, the deficit already totals $458 billion — the second-largest start on record.

Cisco Hits An All-Time High

December 15, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

At the absolute peak of the dot-com boom — routers stacked to the ceiling and PowerPoint masquerading as profits — Cisco’s market capitalization topped out at roughly 4.4% of U.S. GDP.

Nvidia today? Roughly 16% of U.S. GDP.

That’s not a rounding error.

Measured against the size of the economy, Nvidia is in a category Cisco never visited. Which means that any serious disappointment in the AI build-out would scale 2000–01 – geometrically.

From Permission to Possession

December 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.