“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”
–Attributed to Mark Twain
June 10, 2025 — It wasn’t even twelve months ago that America’ s political, economic, and cultural tectonic plates started to shift—finally in a positive direction.
Joe Biden’s deteriorating mental condition was put on display for the world to see in his one and only Presidential debate; at the time this looked like the final nail in the coffin for the Left, which had no choice but to finally admit the very truth that they had spent years covering up.
The fact that so many top agents of the Left’s disinformation campaign have now gone on to write books about the cover-up is a sad testament to modern America.
First it was CNN’s Jake Tapper, who blamed just about everyone else on the Left (except for himself) for presenting Joe Biden as a “sharp President”.
Now former White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre—the official mouthpiece of the cover-up—is releasing a book called Independent: A Look Inside a Broken White House, Outside the Party Lines.
The same woman who spent years lying to our faces now wants to lecture us about “the importance of dismantling the torrent of disinformation and misinformation that has been rampant in recent elections.”
Rather than be charged for the criminal conspiracy and fraud that she perpetuated on the United States, she’ll probably make millions in book royalties and speaking fees.
But I digress.
Anyhow, it was only a few weeks after Dementia-gate that a would-be assassin tried to take out Donald Trump; Trump then famously jumped back up, pumped his fist in the air, and yelled “Fight, fight, fight!”
I imagine quite a number of world leaders soiled their pants that day; they all suddenly realized that the fumbling, weak America that they had been accustomed to during the Biden era was no more… and that there was about to be a new sheriff in town.
And within a month, Trump had pulled the most powerful men in the country to his side– starting with Elon Musk.
It was the marriage that America desperately needed—a second-term President who had no F’s to give about tearing up the swamp, combined with the richest guy in the world who had the energy and resources to make it happen.
After the election, Trump and Elon almost immediately made plans to drastically reduce the size of government, take a chainsaw to regulations, cut the deficit, and save America’s finances.
Confidence and optimism soared. Consumers, businesses, investors… everything came roaring back.
Then reality started to set in—gradually, then suddenly.
Elon put his entire business empire on hold to tackle what is literally America’s biggest problem: it’s $36+ trillion national debt and the government’s insatiable appetite for deficit spending.
The Left began fighting him immediately in every way imaginable. They defamed him in the media with hysterical allegations of “hijacking democracy”. They took him to court. They staged mob rallies at government offices.
And when none of that worked, Leftist crazies began firebombing Tesla dealerships… all in an effort to make sure that not one cent was cut from America’s $1.8 trillion annual deficit.
The conservatives, for their part, said some very kind words about Elon. Yet they ultimately ignored everything and refused to codify the vast majority of his finds into the new budget.
In a final act of cowardice and duplicity, the House passed a bill that increased the deficit by about 10%, from $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. Even adjusted for inflation, this is massive deficit growth.
Along the way, the President’s advisors busied themselves making the case that America’s #1 problem is that the country imports too much.
Sure, you could make a spirited argument that the US is somewhat damaged by its trade deficit.
But the trade deficit is NOTHING compared to the national debt, not to mention the US government’s unfunded liabilities in programs like Social Security and Medicare.
In total (according to Treasury’s own estimates), America’s liabilities surpass $100 trillion. It completely dwarfs trade imbalances.
Yet rather than setting their efforts on the key economic priority—cutting the deficit through higher economic growth (which drives higher tax revenue) while slashing spending and reforming entitlements– they insisted that the only way to save the country was to blow up global trade.
They even called it Liberation Day—which itself is a total farce.
“Liberation Day” should have been the day that thousands of freedom-killing, job-killing, productivity-killing regulations were eliminated once and for all… or the day that Congress repealed pointless and expensive legislation.
Instead, everyone was liberated from inexpensive imported goods… and liberated from having a confident outlook on the future.
And at some point, in the relatively near future, Americans will also be liberated from having the global reserve currency.
It became clear at this point that the Trump/Elon relationship was strained. The “One, Big, Beautiful” deficit bill was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back.
Everyone saw the war of words last week. So did Putin, Xi, and every other adversary. It wasn’t a good look for the country or for the US government’s already stretched credibility.
These same adversaries have already figured out that the best way to tussle with America today is to simply stand your ground and not give in.
China figured it out with Liberation Day. Rather than grovel to the Trump administration’s demands, they stuck to their guns and have generally outplayed American trade representatives.
Jamie Dimon acknowledged the same when describing his trip to China last month: “the Chinese aren’t scared” about Liberation Day… or too much else for that matter.
And this Trump/Elon breakup will only embolden them even more. Capitalizing on your adversary’s internal conflict is an old tactic dating back to Sun-Tzu’s Art of War, and the Chinese know it well.
Russia has figured it out too. Rather than bend and grovel to peace commandments in Ukraine, Putin has realized that he just needs to keep going. Hold the line. Continue bombing. Make absurd demands. And then wait for the US to fold… or become distracted with more internal conflict.
What’s happening in Los Angeles only adds fuel to the American dumpster fire. More conflict—full-blown insurrection in this case—that distracts and humiliates the US while emboldening adversaries.
Iran is almost certainly next; they’ve already pushed back on the nuclear deal, essentially saying, “No, the US doesn’t get to tell us whether we’re allowed to enrich uranium.”
It’s been nearly a year since Trump jumped up from a bullet with his fist in the air… and America is already back on a downward trajectory with a pretty steep slope.
Internal conflict abounds. There appears to be little unity, little direction, little focus. And adversaries who were getting ready to capitulate six months ago are more powerful.
Not one to go quietly, Elon is now talking about starting a new political party. He certainly has the means to do it, and I imagine if he does, he will probably attract tens of millions of people who are disgusted by the liars and sell-outs on both sides.
Given that this is the guy who wants to colonize Mars, I’m betting that he won’t stop with a political party and will ultimately start his own country.
If Singapore—barely the size of an American suburb—can be a sovereign state with a few million residents, it’s absolutely possible for Elon to start his own nation. And I’m legitimately predicting that he will within the next few years.
It will probably be close to the US—a place where people want to live (and can live).
Maybe somewhere along the Canadian border—beautiful land, strategic location. Or in South Texas near the Mexican border (though rattlesnakes and scorpions are a harder sell).
In a world so bizarre, so full of unfortunate and missed opportunities, a Free State of Elon actually sounds pretty rational.
James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign & Grey Swan
P.S. from Addison: One of our first forecasts for the nascent Grey Swan Investment Fraternity was that President Biden wouldn’t be the Democratic candidate in 2024. We were right. We anticipated chaos in deciding his replacement – an area where our expectations were wrong.
Later in the race, we followed the betting site Polymarket to forecast that Trump would win the seven key swing states to retake the White House. What a year, indeed!
The world is changing in many ways, including the massive growth of new forms of warfare. John Robb will unpack what’s going on with Ukraine’s drone attacks against Russian military targets – deep behind enemy lines – in this week’s Grey Swan Live!
And with the metals space in mind as structural fiscal spending issues remain, our portfolio director, Andrew Packer, will be attending the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton next month.
The Symposium is Rick’s continuation of the Agora Financial Symposium we co-sponsored in Vancouver with him for a decade in the early 2000s.
Now, in Boca Raton, it’s a five-day affair featuring in-depth research from dozens of small-cap resource companies, including gold and silver mining companies, but also copper, uranium, and other critical commodities we’ve explored in-depth in our research over the past year. Click here to view the stellar speaker line up and learn how you can attend yourself.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
