We keep a close eye on consumer trends. It’s still the dominant component of the economy, with one estimate putting it at around 70% of non-governmental spending.
Some of the data is surprising.
Despite all the whining by politicians trying to get elected to public office, monthly economic indicators published by Redbook Research reveal no sign of a slowdown in the consumer economy yet:
Redbook measures “same-store sales” across a panel of large general-merchandise retailers, such as department stores, discount chains, apparel retailers, drugstores, and warehouse clubs. The survey indicates where consumers are spending on a regular basis, not on one-off purchases.
And it ignores the extra spending due to higher gas prices right now.
For the week of October 16, it decelerated but remained at a fairly high 9.7% year-over-year growth. That’s after hitting +10.4% the prior week – its best reading since 2022.
Each of the last two weeks has printed well above the 2025 average of +5.8% y/y.
Quick summary note: Consumer spending has picked up all through the hand-wringing over “affordability” leading into the midterms.
Of course, credit card balances are also on the rise. But that’s been the norm since the government handed out free money during the pandemic lockdowns.
In fact, since early 2021, same-store purchases on credit grew steadily year over year from 2022 through 2026, reaching $1.26 trillion by the second quarter of 2026.
You’d think consumers would be concerned that rising interest rates are going to come back and bite buyers on their balance sheets. You might even be right.
But for now, that appears to be a 2027 problem… at the earliest.
Viva las consumidoras!
Wait.
It gets better.
We’re now entering the peak retail earnings season.
Historically, retail stocks tend to rise this time of year ahead of holiday sales. And there’s some truth to the old saying about how “Black Friday” was initially coined not for its massive sales, but for the day of the year in late November when retailers finally turned a profit for the year.
Today’s Pro looks at a retailer that has been trending higher and trades at a substantial discount to its peers… with a hefty dividend tacked on for good measure.
~ Addison
P.S. Yesterday, we pulled off a double-header for Grey Swan Investment Fraternity members.
First we hosted an event with our friends from Prime Corporate Services.
Are your trading accounts set and taxes organized before the end of 2026?
With the end of 2026 in sight, now’s the time to make some year-end moves that could significantly save on your taxes.
Nick showed us how to legally minimize your taxes with smart, strategic planning — including using your membership in the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity as a tax-deductible expense against your investment gains.
Next, we met up with Adam O’Dell of Money & Markets. We covered Adam’s system-based trading strategy, the opportunities he sees now, and the latest at where we’re at in the tech trade – including a shift towards the push for data centers in space. The replay is up on site now.
You can review more of Adam’s work at Money & Markets, and he also writes the free email “What My System Says Today.” Adam is always honing his systems and providing updates on his latest research, which you can also check out here.
