The Big, Beautiful Deficit Is On Track

May 22, 2025 • 48 second read

The GOP’s “Big, Beautiful,” tax bill passed with a single-vote majority in the House. It now goes to the Senate, and, presumably, the President’s desk.

The bill, once law, will add about $5 trillion to the national debt, taking us over $40 trillion – and dangerously close to a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio.

How did we get here?

Turn Your Images On

It’s pretty simple how we got here: One vote at a time. While Congress has never won a popularity contest, in each district, your member of Congress has.

And over time, voters, many of whom end up paying no net taxes, get to weigh in on the government’s spending priorities.

The fact that the GOP couldn’t even codify the tens of billions in potential savings from DOGE, and had to increase the state and local tax (SALT) carveout, is a sign that the can is getting kicked down the road, even if that road ends with the country going over a cliff.

~ Addison

Ripple Effect

The Big, Beautiful Deficit Is On Track

Addison Wiggin

May 22, 2025 • 48 second read

debt deficit

The GOP’s “Big, Beautiful,” tax bill passed with a single-vote majority in the House. It now goes to the Senate, and, presumably, the President’s desk.

The bill, once law, will add about $5 trillion to the national debt, taking us over $40 trillion – and dangerously close to a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio.

How did we get here?

Turn Your Images On

It’s pretty simple how we got here: One vote at a time. While Congress has never won a popularity contest, in each district, your member of Congress has.

And over time, voters, many of whom end up paying no net taxes, get to weigh in on the government’s spending priorities.

~ Addison

The Shock Return of the “Debasement Trade”

August 21, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A seemingly innocuous $2 billion Treasury announcement… economic warfare in Iran… and boom! A $1.3 trillion move in gold and silver.

The Shock Return of the “Debasement Trade”

Copper’s Clear Signal

August 17, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

Market Crash Insurance Is Cheap

August 14, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Beware: Financial Innovation In AI

August 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.