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The Big, Beautiful Deficit Is On Track

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

May 22, 2025 • 48 second read


debtdeficit

The Big, Beautiful Deficit Is On Track

The GOP’s “Big, Beautiful,” tax bill passed with a single-vote majority in the House. It now goes to the Senate, and, presumably, the President’s desk.

The bill, once law, will add about $5 trillion to the national debt, taking us over $40 trillion – and dangerously close to a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio.

How did we get here?

Turn Your Images On

It’s pretty simple how we got here: One vote at a time. While Congress has never won a popularity contest, in each district, your member of Congress has.

And over time, voters, many of whom end up paying no net taxes, get to weigh in on the government’s spending priorities.

The fact that the GOP couldn’t even codify the tens of billions in potential savings from DOGE, and had to increase the state and local tax (SALT) carveout, is a sign that the can is getting kicked down the road, even if that road ends with the country going over a cliff.

~ Addison


Bonfire in Timber (Prices)!

November 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Timber is among several commodities declining this year. Oil, down 15%. Wheat minus 10%. Egg prices have gotten over the avian flu and are down 80%.

Lower commodity costs are good for consumers. They offset tariff costs to wholesalers. And they are good for this year’s political pet issue, “affordability.”

But they also reflect a sore spot in the overall economy. Lower demand for timber, a key component in housing, means builders aren’t building.

Many economists interpret lower timber prices as a sign that the economy is already in recession.

Bonfire in Timber (Prices)!
The Debasement “Trade”

November 18, 2025 • Mark Jeftovic

Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work.

I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion.

The one that just triggered in mid-November as bitcoin flirted with $90,000 is just the latest.

What really matters? It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold.

The Debasement “Trade”
The Cult of Stock Market Riches

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

White-collar hiring is, in fact, slowing. Engel’s Pause is taking hold of the jobs picture.

In the meantime, everyday Americans are rediscovering an ancient truth: there is wisdom in wearing steel-toed boots.

Jobs that struggle to attract bodies in boom times are now seeing stampedes of applicants.

– Georgia’s Department of Corrections: applications up 40%.

– The U.S. military: reached 2025 recruiting goals early.

– Waste management staffing: applications up 50%.

For now, economists call this “labor market tightness.” Anyone who has ever scrubbed a grease trap knows it by another name: fear.

The Cult of Stock Market Riches
Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Bitcoin has historically weathered 30%+ corrections while still in a bull market. 

Global liquidity fears and lower odds of a Fed rate cut in December are driving bitcoin and other cryptos lower at present. 

As Andrew Zatlin described on Thursday’s Live! we can expect a series of stimulus efforts next year, ahead of the midterms, driving new liquidity. The $2,000 “tariff rebate” checks President Trump has been touting are but one example.

When higher liquidity hits the market – in whatever form it takes – today’s bitcoin buyers will be waiting.

Make like the whales, and use market selloffs and stimulus to your advantage.

Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip