Most investors are familiar with the price-to-earnings, or PE, ratio. But what if you invert that, and divide earnings by price? You get what’s called the “earnings yield.”
Earnings yield on the S&P 500 is near a 100-year low:
The stock market’s “earnings yield” indicates investors are getting very little earnings for their investment dollars. (Source: Bloomberg)
You’d have to go back to the dotcom peak to find a lower earnings yield. Before that? 1929.
The market is still driven by a small percentage of high flying tech companies now borrowing heavily to win the “AI Race.”
As we have seen with software stocks and crypto over the past 11 trading days, the market is starting to sort the winners from the losers.
At yields this low, investors start worrying about return of capital more than return on capital.
Gold and silver’s recent price correction have created new attractive entry prices. We still like bitcoin and Dollar 2.0 digital asset plays. And the names in the Grey Swan Model Portfolio continue to pay strong dividends outside roiling tech.
~ Addison
P.S. On a macro level, U.S. debt, foreign ownership of stocks, and gold reserves all hit inflection points in late 2025. There’s a regime shift underway that will benefit individual investors who can spot the trends.
On Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. today, February 12, 2026, U.S. Global Investors Frank Holmes will show how those trends are playing out in his portfolio of global ETFs.
Here’s what’s driving the conversation:
- Foreign holders were paid a record $292 billion in interest on U.S. Treasurys in Q3 2025 — more than double 2020 levels.
- Foreign investors now hold $9.1 trillion in U.S. debt, four times the amount held just two decades ago.
- Central banks are quietly rebalancing reserves — gold’s share has surged from 13% to 24% since 2021, overtaking the dollar for the first time.
Meanwhile, Washington is betting that crypto assets and stablecoins can create a bigger, more efficient market for U.S. debt, extending the dollar’s reserve-currency status.
But there’s a catch.
As Frank will explain, the banking lobby is pushing hard to lock its monopoly on the US national savings and restrict Dollar 2.0 assets through new regulation.
