The economy itself is like a massive tanker. It doesn’t turn on a dime when prices rise or fall. New prices take time – weeks and months – before the full impact of a shock is felt.
The headline price spooking investors right now is oil. The initial price spike reached $120 per barrel. Today, the black goo trades around $95, a sustained level last seen in 2014 before the shale boom.
Historically, spikes and sustained higher price levels have led to a soaring risk of recession. And so the risk of recession has risen again to levels last seen before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008:
Historically, oil price spikes of 50% or more have triggered recessions. Today, the risk of recession in 2026 has risen to to levels only seen during prior crises. (Source: @ekwufinance via X)
Granted, the U.S. economy has grown over and advances in technology and policy have helped the U.S. become a net energy exporter. Still, the spike in energy, fertilizer, helium and other inputs are real.
Likewise, the difference between $3 and $4 per gallon of gas goes “unseen,” but it’s money not being invested or spent elsewhere. Recession risk has risen across the real economy, even if a “double-edged” ceasefire at the Strait of Hormuz holds.
President Donald Trump has some work to do if he plans to keep the majority vote in the US House of Representatives in November.
~ Addison
P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Dr. Mark Skousesn yielded a romp through political and economic “liberty” from the signing of the Declaration of Independence and the 25o-year anniversary of Adam’s Smith’s Wealth of Nations – with a strong detour through the renaissance accomplishments of Benjamin Franklin – all the way to Elon Musk and the entrepreneurs leading the U.S. economy into the AI and space age.
As America celebrates its 250th anniversary this year, Mark is gathering renowned guests for The World’s Fair of Liberty – this year’s theme for FreedomFest – in Las Vegas, July 8-11, 2026.
FreedomFest is easily the most unique gathering of economists, historians, money managers, policymakers and iconoclasts held each year. The Anthem film festival, held in tandem, brings together filmmakers and creative types from all over the world.
If you haven’t been, or want to return this year, the event promises to be a fantastic gathering in honor of America’s 250th anniversary. Check out the details here. (***During our conversation, Mark went into some detail on the discounts he was able to secure at Las Vegas hotels exclusively for attendees to this year’s event.)
In the meantime, you can watch the replay of Grey Swan Live! Mark Skousen in the members section of the Grey Swan website. If you’re not already a member, click here to join our latest livestream.
