The market is quiet. Too quiet.
Or at least, that’s what the “fear gauge” is telling us.
The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, uses options prices to estimate how much traders expect the S&P 500 to move over the next 30 days.
When investors are nervous, they buy protection, options prices rise, and the VIX jumps. When investors are relaxed, protection gets cheaper, and the VIX falls.
After a spike in early March when Epic Fury began in Iran, the VIX has been relatively sanguine throughout the ceasefire melodrama, starring Donald Trump from the doorway of the press room on Air Force One.
Currently, below 15, the VIX is at its lowest point this year:
Market volatility is at its lowest level of the year, which makes it less expensive to hedge against an unexpected market decline. (Source: Barchart)
A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.
Here goes:
A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.
It also means investors are not paying much for protection right now.
Market calm is useful because crash insurance is cheaper when nobody thinks they need it. If the VIX is low, investors can buy market-drop hedges at a better price than during a panic.
The VIX has an “average” range of 17-20. It’s prone to spiking higher quickly, as it did back in March.
During relative calm and summer heat, the markets can get more complacent even while, as we pointed out in yesterday’s Pro, the circular AI trade meanders higher.
The market is quiet, protection is cheap… you may want to consider buying insurance before the crowd suddenly remembers why insurance exists.
Today’s Grey Swan Pro recommendation is what Andrew calls a “timing dependent” trade – and if you don’t buy crash insurance when it’s cheap, like today, it’s challenging to hedge effectively. When the inevitable market downswing begins, you’ll be happy you took out insurance ahead of time.
~ Addison