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Beneath the Surface

Landslide

Loading ...Andrew Packer

November 11, 2024 • 1 minute, 15 second read


electionllandslide

Landslide
https://open.substack.com/pub/joelbowman/p/landslide?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Front row at the Smashing Pumpkins…

“I took my love, I took it down
Climbed a mountain and I turned around
And I saw my reflection in the snow covered hills
‘Til the landslide brought me down”

~ Landslide by Stevie Nicks (1975)

Joel Bowman with today’s Note From the End of the World: Buenos Aires, Argentina…

While American voters were delivering something of a political landslide this past Tuesday, your generally apolitical editor was reliving the glory days of his misspent youth, watching Billy Corgan deliver an acoustic rendition of the Stevie Nicks classic, Landslide, here in Buenos Aires…

Many tides have turned since we first heard this tune, which we used to sing on the way to swimming training, bleary eyed, at 5am every morning. Funny how songs still speak to us, with new and ever changing meanings, even after all these years. From the lyrics…

Well, I’ve been ‘fraid of changin’
‘Cause I’ve built my life around you
But time makes you bolder
Even children get older
And I’m gettin’ older, too…

There were other tunes, too… Smashing Pumpkins classics like Bullet with Butterfly Wings, Disarm and Mayonaise. For one brief night, jumping along with the rock ‘n’ roll crowd, we felt like we were seventeen again. Then came the next morning when, battered and bruised, we got a sudden glimpse of what it might be like to feel 70…

Cheers,

Joel Bowman

 


The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed
Waiting for Jerome

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning,  the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

Waiting for Jerome
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December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

Deep Value Going Global in 2026
Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

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As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper