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Beneath the Surface

Landslide

Loading ...Andrew Packer

November 11, 2024 • 1 minute, 15 second read


electionllandslide

Landslide
https://open.substack.com/pub/joelbowman/p/landslide?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Front row at the Smashing Pumpkins…

“I took my love, I took it down
Climbed a mountain and I turned around
And I saw my reflection in the snow covered hills
‘Til the landslide brought me down”

~ Landslide by Stevie Nicks (1975)

Joel Bowman with today’s Note From the End of the World: Buenos Aires, Argentina…

While American voters were delivering something of a political landslide this past Tuesday, your generally apolitical editor was reliving the glory days of his misspent youth, watching Billy Corgan deliver an acoustic rendition of the Stevie Nicks classic, Landslide, here in Buenos Aires…

Many tides have turned since we first heard this tune, which we used to sing on the way to swimming training, bleary eyed, at 5am every morning. Funny how songs still speak to us, with new and ever changing meanings, even after all these years. From the lyrics…

Well, I’ve been ‘fraid of changin’
‘Cause I’ve built my life around you
But time makes you bolder
Even children get older
And I’m gettin’ older, too…

There were other tunes, too… Smashing Pumpkins classics like Bullet with Butterfly Wings, Disarm and Mayonaise. For one brief night, jumping along with the rock ‘n’ roll crowd, we felt like we were seventeen again. Then came the next morning when, battered and bruised, we got a sudden glimpse of what it might be like to feel 70…

Cheers,

Joel Bowman

 


The Grand Realignment Gets Personal

January 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Sunday night, Powell addressed the probe head-on in a video post — a rarity. He accused the White House of using cost overruns in the Fed’s HQ renovation as a pretext for political interference.

The White House denied involvement. But few in Washington believed it.

What followed was bipartisan condemnation of the investigation. Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen co-signed a blistering rebuke, warning the U.S. was starting to resemble “emerging markets with weak institutions.”

The Grand Realignment Gets Personal
A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress

January 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress
Protest Season Amid the Grand Realignment

January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

There’s an old Wall Street maxim: “Don’t fight the Fed.”

This year, you could add a Trump corollary.

A wise capital allocator doesn’t fight that storm. He doesn’t argue with it. He respects it the way sailors respect the sea: with preparation, with humility, and with a sharp eye for what breaks first.

In 2026, the things that break first are the stories. The narratives. The comfortable assumptions.

Protest Season Amid the Grand Realignment
Breaking: Government Budgets

January 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Total municipal, state and federal debt service costs soared to nearly $1.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Debt’s easy to accumulate when rates are low. Trouble is, you are obligated to refinance them even after rates go up.

It’s also a key reason why the Trump administration is demanding lower interest rates – even if it means reigniting inflation.

Breaking: Government Budgets