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Beneath the Surface

Landslide

Loading ...Andrew Packer

November 11, 2024 • 1 minute, 15 second read


electionllandslide

Landslide
https://open.substack.com/pub/joelbowman/p/landslide?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Front row at the Smashing Pumpkins…

“I took my love, I took it down
Climbed a mountain and I turned around
And I saw my reflection in the snow covered hills
‘Til the landslide brought me down”

~ Landslide by Stevie Nicks (1975)

Joel Bowman with today’s Note From the End of the World: Buenos Aires, Argentina…

While American voters were delivering something of a political landslide this past Tuesday, your generally apolitical editor was reliving the glory days of his misspent youth, watching Billy Corgan deliver an acoustic rendition of the Stevie Nicks classic, Landslide, here in Buenos Aires…

Many tides have turned since we first heard this tune, which we used to sing on the way to swimming training, bleary eyed, at 5am every morning. Funny how songs still speak to us, with new and ever changing meanings, even after all these years. From the lyrics…

Well, I’ve been ‘fraid of changin’
‘Cause I’ve built my life around you
But time makes you bolder
Even children get older
And I’m gettin’ older, too…

There were other tunes, too… Smashing Pumpkins classics like Bullet with Butterfly Wings, Disarm and Mayonaise. For one brief night, jumping along with the rock ‘n’ roll crowd, we felt like we were seventeen again. Then came the next morning when, battered and bruised, we got a sudden glimpse of what it might be like to feel 70…

Cheers,

Joel Bowman

 


Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired

December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict. 

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired
Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy

December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy
Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later

December 23, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots. 

Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later
2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!

December 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!