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Beneath the Surface

Landslide

Loading ...Andrew Packer

November 11, 2024 • 1 minute, 15 second read


electionllandslide

Landslide
https://open.substack.com/pub/joelbowman/p/landslide?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Front row at the Smashing Pumpkins…

“I took my love, I took it down
Climbed a mountain and I turned around
And I saw my reflection in the snow covered hills
‘Til the landslide brought me down”

~ Landslide by Stevie Nicks (1975)

Joel Bowman with today’s Note From the End of the World: Buenos Aires, Argentina…

While American voters were delivering something of a political landslide this past Tuesday, your generally apolitical editor was reliving the glory days of his misspent youth, watching Billy Corgan deliver an acoustic rendition of the Stevie Nicks classic, Landslide, here in Buenos Aires…

Many tides have turned since we first heard this tune, which we used to sing on the way to swimming training, bleary eyed, at 5am every morning. Funny how songs still speak to us, with new and ever changing meanings, even after all these years. From the lyrics…

Well, I’ve been ‘fraid of changin’
‘Cause I’ve built my life around you
But time makes you bolder
Even children get older
And I’m gettin’ older, too…

There were other tunes, too… Smashing Pumpkins classics like Bullet with Butterfly Wings, Disarm and Mayonaise. For one brief night, jumping along with the rock ‘n’ roll crowd, we felt like we were seventeen again. Then came the next morning when, battered and bruised, we got a sudden glimpse of what it might be like to feel 70…

Cheers,

Joel Bowman

 


The Debasement “Trade”

November 18, 2025 • Mark Jeftovic

Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work.

I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion.

The one that just triggered in mid-November as bitcoin flirted with $90,000 is just the latest.

What really matters? It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold.

The Debasement “Trade”
The Cult of Stock Market Riches

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

White-collar hiring is, in fact, slowing. Engel’s Pause is taking hold of the jobs picture.

In the meantime, everyday Americans are rediscovering an ancient truth: there is wisdom in wearing steel-toed boots.

Jobs that struggle to attract bodies in boom times are now seeing stampedes of applicants.

– Georgia’s Department of Corrections: applications up 40%.

– The U.S. military: reached 2025 recruiting goals early.

– Waste management staffing: applications up 50%.

For now, economists call this “labor market tightness.” Anyone who has ever scrubbed a grease trap knows it by another name: fear.

The Cult of Stock Market Riches
Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Bitcoin has historically weathered 30%+ corrections while still in a bull market. 

Global liquidity fears and lower odds of a Fed rate cut in December are driving bitcoin and other cryptos lower at present. 

As Andrew Zatlin described on Thursday’s Live! we can expect a series of stimulus efforts next year, ahead of the midterms, driving new liquidity. The $2,000 “tariff rebate” checks President Trump has been touting are but one example.

When higher liquidity hits the market – in whatever form it takes – today’s bitcoin buyers will be waiting.

Make like the whales, and use market selloffs and stimulus to your advantage.

Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip
Private Credit’s Creditanstalt Moment

November 17, 2025 • Andrew Packer

The market seems to know something about private credit that we don’t. And in a big enough liquidity event for private credit, investors will have to sell off more liquid assets if they want capital.

That’s the danger private credit poses today, exactly at a time when rules are being eased to make it easier for retail investors like us to buy into this asset class.

I’m in the camp that this smells like a way to keep the party going by providing another source of liquidity – the passive investment flows from your regular 401(k) contributions. The smell takes on a sour note as this sector starts to falter.

Perhaps today’s selloff is simply a reaction to declining interest rates, the growth of private credit, and a few inevitable deals that have gone sour recently.

Private Credit’s Creditanstalt Moment