How Tariff Turmoil = Greater Income

“If you are not willing to own a stock for 10 years, do not even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

–Warren Buffett

 

April 25, 2025 — Amid this market turmoil, with uncertainty still raging, one idea stands out: Buying safe, income-growing assets.

For instance, consider one idea I pitched to my first financial publisher back in 2010…

Although the stock market had bottomed the year before and was trending higher, investors were still fearful…

Yet interest rates were at zero percent for the first time — and although we wouldn’t know it, they stayed that way until late 2015.

It was clear that investors couldn’t get meaningful income owning bonds, or keeping cash in the bank. Many bank accounts paid zero interest (and some still pay barely any). Bond income was higher, but after taxes on the interest, it was hardly worth it.

That’s why I wanted to focus on finding high-quality stocks that investors could own that paid out growing dividends.

I outlined one stock in particular that I thought was attractive.

It’s still conceptually attractive today.

It provides a necessary service that can’t be outsourced.

Yes, there’s some room to improve the service with AI and robotics. But it still requires human judgment and will for some time.

It’s also a company with a small oligopoly. There are few competitors. Getting started is tough, keeping new entrants at bay – what Warren Buffett would call a strong moat.

And in 2010, it was a fairly-valued stock trading for about $35, while also paying a quarterly dividend of $0.32.

More importantly, they hadn’t reduced or lowered the dividend payout during the Great Financial Crisis. Instead, they were one of the few companies to raise their payout.

Plus, this company usually signed multi-year contracts with escalation clauses. That would allow them to not only grow their earnings, but come out ahead in case inflation ever reared its ugly head again.

In short, it fits into this category of what Addison calls a “nearly perfect stock.”

That reflects the idea that no stock is perfect. But many stocks can provide you with long-term growth, income, and downside safety. You just have to know where to look.

So what did my publisher say when I pitched this idea?

“You can’t run with that idea. It just isn’t exciting enough.”

To be fair, she wasn’t wrong. Because the stock I was pitching 15 years ago was Waste Management (WM).

And since the idea wasn’t “sexy” enough to sell in a financial newsletter, I ended up buying some shares in my Roth IRA instead.

I still own them to this day. Even after falling 5% on April 4 amid the market bloodbath, every $35 share I bought now goes for $225.

Over the past 10 years, Waste Management has returned nearly 330%. The S&P 500? A still-impressive 182.9%.

In the 15 years I’ve owned shares, they’re up 872.5%. Not as exciting as a tech stock, but it also has avoided the kind of 50% drawdowns that tech companies face when market fears strike.

But here’s the real kicker: Waste Management’s quarterly dividend hasn’t stayed flat like a bond payment. It’s no longer $0.32 per quarter.

As of March 2025, it’s now $0.83 per quarter. That’s a $3.32 annual payout.

That’s a 260% increase in income. Not as good as the capital gains in shares, but a company with a rising dividend tends to see the share price rise as payouts do.

A year before I bought Waste Management, I bought shares of McDonald’s. In early 2009, right as the market was bottoming, I figured if people couldn’t even satisfy their Big Mac Attack urges anymore, capitalism as we knew it was cooked.

Shares of McDonald’s have gone from $55 to $300, shooting up six-fold. The dividend growth has been higher than Waste Management, however.

The point with discussing these positions isn’t to brag. It’s to make sure you’re focused on the goal of investing: not only creating wealth over time, but protecting it by owning the right companies.

That’s why, even amid this tariff uncertainty, it may be time to pick up shares of businesses with strong brands, a strong balance sheet, and are industry leaders.

If they’re in an industry like Waste Management with few competitors, so much the better.

And if you can buy great companies now, stuff ‘em into a retirement account, and ignore their returns for 10 or 15 years, you’ll be pleasantly surprised when you take a closer look at your returns… and be glad you didn’t sell out during every market speed bump along the way.

Look at that chart of Waste Management again. Some years it trends steadily higher. Sometimes it trades sideways for 12-18 months. McDonald’s has done the same thing.

However, given enough time, growing earnings and growing dividends will push shares higher, and give you a simple, effective way to safely match or beat the market’s return without having to trade on every single news headline Mr. Market throws your way.

The only real downside with these companies is that may take 15 years for a boring stock to become an exciting story. However, these are the kinds of companies that we gravitate towards in our model portfolio… and the kinds of companies worth buying today, even amid the current market fear and uncertainty.

Regards,

Andrew Packer
Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: Andrew’s piece was first published in the April issue of the Grey Swan Monthly Bulletin – a review of the investment trends and ideas we’re tracking in a changing market, evolving economy and toxic political environment. Mr. Packer provides a great example of the kinds of investments we include in our model portfolio for steady growth – and, yes, rising income – even during bear (as in difficult) markets.

“I was skeptical at first,” new member Jon C. wrote earlier this week, “But I must say, you do not disappoint!”

“Hey Addison,” Paul M. agrees. “Maybe it’s because I don’t have billions in Treasurys or Bonds, but I’m lovin’ this market!

“I heeded your warnings about selling before the drop. The news was everywhere for months. If you sold your weakest stocks and held your big gainers, you should have had a nice chunk of change to get in as close to the bottom as possible.”

Paul goes on to give us a play-by-play of the money he made in GEV and PLTR, including various options winners and losers. Then gives  this specific piece of advice:

I got into PLTR when it was a SPAC and sold too much when I had more than a 200% gain. That is the best lesson I have learned, and the best advice I could give: DO NOT sell too early. I would have had 10X on PLTR but had to buy back in at $14. I bought NIO in 2020 when it was $1.48 and sold it and rebought numerous times all for decent gains. If I had held my 1000 shares, I could have had a $47K pay day…still grind my dentures over that miss.

In the meantime, I have long-term holds, and I play options daily with a small percentage of my holdings. It’s been working well for me.

“I’m lovin’ the volatility!”

“Thanks for all you do!”

For commentary, Mr. M. also gives us his insight regarding the feckless headlines and their coverage of the Trump White House:

I know Trump’s heart and intentions are for the best for the people, but the problem has always been that he can’t help but read his thought bubbles out loud.

I know a pastor who has given him advice, which Don had solicited. The advice was to think about how your words will affect everyone. That lasted a month or two. It isn’t in him to keep quiet when someone or some situation irritates him.

Everyone should get the man by now.

I was a closer in the car business, and keeping our mouths shut was money on payday. I also had a top-secret clearance when I was a 17-year-old Navy Airman during the Cold War and tracked Russian submarines—loose lips and all.

“Thanks again, Addison!”

Love it! Thanks for reaching out, Paul.

Please add your own perspective to the mix here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

Otherwise, if you’re not currently a member, I urge you to join as soon as possible to get the most out of your Grey Swan Investment Fraternity – including special investment analyses, monthly investment bulletins and Grey Swan Live! – weekly online meet-ups. All for one membership fee. You can join the fraternity by clicking right here. Don’t miss the fun.