Gold’s Relentless Bid

Gold rose nearly 3% during the President’s State of the Union Address last night. It’s up 15% since the late January correction. Year-to-date, it’s up 20%.

In overnight trading in Asia, gold hit $5,228.

While U.S. government deficit spending remains fundamental to the price, the biggest driver is… Relentless buying by central banks.

China just updated its holdings, showing over $350 billion in the metal:

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Since 2023, China’s central bank has added to its gold reserves aggressively.
The U.S. Treasury, not so much. (Source: The People’s Bank of China)

China’s gold reserves have more than tripled since 2022, while the U.S. Treasury holdings have declined. The metal is rising as central banks’ sovereign bond exposure falls globally.

Capital continues to be repositioned between a Western debt-based system and an Eastern resource-based accumulation.

The shift keeps us long gold — the metal, the miners, and select rare coins — and active in resource trades inside the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity. The trade we issued ahead of the State of the Union Address… is up 15% over the past week.

(For good measure, we closed a natural gas position up 61%, too.

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! this week will be coming to you live from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Willowbrook, Chicago. Our interest: Rare coins offer a unique way to protect your wealth with precious metals – and they carry the added value of rarity, mint, condition and historical significance.

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Please join us while we visit with family founder, Wayde Milas, inside the Rarcoa vault to check out the 2025 Eagle Privy Silver Eagle graded NGC MS70 from the first group of 50,000 pristine minted coins. Brand new sets will be available to attendees of the Zoom at a steeply discounted event price.

The live Zoom event will air on Friday, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST.

Gold rose nearly 3% during the President’s State of the Union Address last night. It’s up 15% since the late January correction. Year-to-date, it’s up 20%.

In overnight trading in Asia, gold hit $5,228.

While U.S. government deficit spending remains fundamental to the price, the biggest driver is… Relentless buying by central banks.

China just updated its holdings, showing over $350 billion in the metal:

Turn Your Images On

Since 2023, China’s central bank has added to its gold reserves aggressively.
The U.S. Treasury, not so much. (Source: The People’s Bank of China)

China’s gold reserves have more than tripled since 2022, while the U.S. Treasury holdings have declined. The metal is rising as central banks’ sovereign bond exposure falls globally.

Capital continues to be repositioned between a Western debt-based system and an Eastern resource-based accumulation.

(For good measure, we closed a natural gas position up 61%, too.

~ Addison

Turn Your Images On

The live Zoom event will air on Friday, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!